Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-163/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 19.7 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has garnered 68.9% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has grinded out 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (85th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.