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Christian McCaffrey
NFL · Player Props
Christian McCaffrey
RB · San Francisco 49ers
Rushing TD
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022 Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC
NFL Props Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-355).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +225.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.5% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Christian McCaffrey has run for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Favors Under
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (34.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (70.0% in games he has played).
  • The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
  • Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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