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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-407).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (80th percentile).

The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

The Carolina Panthers have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Panthers are a massive 11-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 38.9% red zone run rate.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.3 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (63.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.8% in games he has played).

Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least TDs in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

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