Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-355).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has run for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (34.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (70.0% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.