Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian McCaffrey has received 57.5% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Carolina Panthers have gone for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 38.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least TDs in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

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