Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers rank as the 9th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 55.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has been given 57.7% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least TDs in the NFL (0.74 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.