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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 49.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be much more involved in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (73.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.7% in games he has played).

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 0.38 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (80th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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