Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -202 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 48.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a more important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (73.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.0% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has run for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (80th percentile).

Favors Under

Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.58 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.