Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 46.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a more important option in his team's run game near the goal line this week (61.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.6% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has run for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 6th-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.