Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-134/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 45.7% red zone run rate.
Christian McCaffrey has been given 70.6% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 0.38 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (80th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.12 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.