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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns

Christian McCaffrey Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +116.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.

Christian McCaffrey has been given 56.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.

The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles project as the 7th-worst collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.0% red zone run rate.

The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least touchdowns in the league (0.76 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.

The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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