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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 79.5% of his offense's passing plays last year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to notch 5.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Christian McCaffrey is positioned as one of the leading pass-catching running backs last year, averaging a terrific 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

Christian McCaffrey is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, completing an impressive 85.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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