Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to garner 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Christian McCaffrey comes in as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a terrific 3.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
Christian McCaffrey's 89.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a noteable growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 85.1% rate.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see just 120.9 total plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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