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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.

Christian McCaffrey has run more routes this year (80.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (70.8%).

The model projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 7.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey's receiving skills have gotten better this season, accumulating 4.4 adjusted catches vs a mere 3.1 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the worst in the league this year.

Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 85.1% to 82.1%.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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