Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 71.3% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the top pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (77.8%) versus running backs since the start of last season (77.8%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.