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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

In this game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.8 targets.

Christian McCaffrey's receiving skills have improved this season, averaging 4.1 adjusted catches vs a mere 3.1 last season.

Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 85.1% to 89.5%.

This year, the porous Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded a colossal 85.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.5 plays per game.

Christian McCaffrey's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 35.1.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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