Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to garner 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
With a remarkable 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey rates among the top running backs in the pass game in football.
Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 85.1% to 94.3%.
This year, the deficient Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed a monstrous 86.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
Christian McCaffrey's 26.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 35.1.

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