Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this season (72.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (47.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.8% to 86.0%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (71%) to running backs this year (71.0%).

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