Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 6.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey's 31.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 86.6%.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (69.3%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.