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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 6.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
  • Christian McCaffrey's 31.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for running backs.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 86.6%.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (69.3%).
  • The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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