Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+117/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential target this year (70.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) vs. RBs this year (86.9%).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving skills have declined this season, notching a mere 3.1 yards per game vs 5.3 last season.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.9% to 85.1%.

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