Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this year (70.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 6.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving talent has worsened this season, compiling a measly 2.9 yards per game compared to 5.3 last season.