Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (-143/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 5.0 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (87.8%) versus RBs this year (87.8%).
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey's pass-catching performance worsened this season, accumulating just 2.7 yards per game compared to 5.3 last season.

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