Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+132/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has run more routes this year (68.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 6.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey's pass-catching performance worsened this year, averaging just 2.8 yards per game vs 5.3 last year.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 84.9%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

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