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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (67.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian McCaffrey's pass-catching performance tailed off this season, notching just 2.3 yards per game vs 5.3 last season.

Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 86.3%.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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