Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -156 before it was bet up to 5.0 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this year (67.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, totaling just 2.1 yards per game compared to 5.3 last year.

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