Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential target this year (64.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 5.4 receptions per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (92.4%) to running backs this year (92.4%).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.9% to 82.4%.

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