Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to garner 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 87th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an astounding 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Christian McCaffrey has posted many more adjusted receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
Christian McCaffrey's 89.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a noteable growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 85.1% rate.
Christian McCaffrey's 8.6 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 7.1 mark.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see just 120.9 total plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.