Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 5.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a striking 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
Christian McCaffrey's 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys a a substantial growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 25.0 figure.
Christian McCaffrey's 88.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a a substantial boost in his receiving talent over last season's 85.1% mark.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
Christian McCaffrey's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 35.1.