Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an impressive 75.0% Route Participation% (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the league.
In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the predictive model to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.4 targets.
Christian McCaffrey has compiled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Christian McCaffrey's 90.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a significant improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 85.1% mark.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 31.28 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.5 per game) this year.