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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to notch 5.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.

The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this week's contest (19.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.5% in games he has played).

When talking about air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 98th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating a colossal 6.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian McCaffrey's receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a measly 5.99 yards-per-target compared to a 7.09 mark last year.

The Cardinals linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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