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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-150/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accrue 5.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

Christian McCaffrey has posted a monstrous 9.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Christian McCaffrey's 38.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a remarkable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 25.0 mark.

With a stellar 7.6 adjusted yards per target (90th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey ranks among the top pass-catching running backs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their typical approach.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 49.6% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a measly 53.1 per game on average).

Christian McCaffrey's 30.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 35.1.

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