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Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-120/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.In this game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.8 targets.In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the towering 100th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a staggering 10.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).Christian McCaffrey's 38.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 25.0 figure.Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 85.1% to 89.5%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.5 plays per game.Christian McCaffrey's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 35.1.
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