Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (43.0 per game) this year.
In this game, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile among RBs with 5.9 targets.
Christian McCaffrey has notched a monstrous 5.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey has posted a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Christian McCaffrey's 89.5% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a material growth in his receiving ability over last season's 85.1% mark.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Christian McCaffrey has been used much less in his offense's passing game.