Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
In this game, Christian McCaffrey is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.5 targets.
Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a staggering 5.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a material improvement in his receiving talent over last year's 25.0 rate.
Christian McCaffrey's 90.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a substantial improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 85.1% figure.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Christian McCaffrey has been utilized much less in his offense's pass game.