Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to garner 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
As it relates to air yards, Christian McCaffrey ranks in the towering 97th percentile among RBs this year, totaling an astounding 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Christian McCaffrey has posted significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (40.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 85.1% to 94.3%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
Christian McCaffrey's 26.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 35.1.