Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 5.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has put up a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 75.5%.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving efficiency has declined this season, compiling just 4.11 yards-per-target vs a 8.33 rate last season.