Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 6.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has compiled a whopping 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's 31.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 86.6%.
Christian McCaffrey's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 5.17 yards-per-target compared to a 8.33 figure last year.
Christian McCaffrey's ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this year, compiling a mere 4.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.32 rate last year.