Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has gone out for more passes this year (71.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has accrued a whopping 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this year, notching 10.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 6.32 rate last year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 14.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 84.3%.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 6.86 yards-per-target compared to a 8.29 rate last season.

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