Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (70.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 6.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has totaled a colossal 7.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's skills in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, notching 12.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 6.32 figure last season.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 86.1%.

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