Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this year (70.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 6.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has compiled a whopping 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten better this year, totaling 12.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 6.32 rate last year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Christian McCaffrey has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

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