Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has accrued a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's talent in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, totaling 13.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 6.32 figure last year.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (45.0) versus RBs this year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

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