Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (+101/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has run more routes this year (68.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 6.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has accrued a colossal 6.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has accrued a lot fewer receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 84.9%.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a mere 6.76 yards-per-target compared to a 8.29 mark last season.