Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (67.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has compiled a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 86.3%.

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