Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this year (67.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has notched a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).

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