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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this year (67.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
  • THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
  • Christian McCaffrey has notched a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
  • Christian McCaffrey has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).

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