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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-526).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +331 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.0% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
  • Christian McCaffrey's 31.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 99th percentile for RBs.
  • The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.14 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
  • Christian McCaffrey has notched far fewer air yards this year (-2.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
  • Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 81.2%.

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