Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-526).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +331 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.0% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey's 31.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 99th percentile for RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.14 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey has notched far fewer air yards this year (-2.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 81.2%.

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