Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+381/-785).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +389 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +381.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey's 37.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 32.6.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 86th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.17 per game.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a less important option in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (17.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.7% in games he has played).
Christian McCaffrey has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (-1.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 81.4%.

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