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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+381/-785).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +389 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +381.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Panthers are a massive 11-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian McCaffrey has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey's 37.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 32.6.

The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.3 plays per game.

Christian McCaffrey has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (-1.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).

Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 81.4%.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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