My Account Log Out

reorder

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+346/-674).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +371 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +346.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Christian McCaffrey's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 100th percentile for RBs.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (22.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).

Christian McCaffrey's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.8% to 86.0%.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™