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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+316/-578).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +340 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +316.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (20.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.8% in games he has played).

Christian McCaffrey has compiled a whopping 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Christian McCaffrey's 31.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for running backs.

Christian McCaffrey ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.11 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 86.6%.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (69.3%).

The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.16 per game since the start of last season.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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