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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-391).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +271 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Christian McCaffrey has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey has accrued a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Christian McCaffrey's 35.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 100th percentile for running backs.

Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 98th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.31 per game.

The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (87.8%) versus RBs this year (87.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 85.6%.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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