Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+309/-558).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -471 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -558.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian McCaffrey has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has accrued a colossal 6.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's 36.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 100th percentile for RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 84.9%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to pass rush.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.