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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+287/-498).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -444 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -498.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Christian McCaffrey has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.3% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey has compiled a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Christian McCaffrey's 34.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 100th percentile for RBs.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.9% to 86.3%.

The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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