Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-427).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +293 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +259.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.9% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has notched a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 100th percentile for RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (73.9%) versus RBs this year (73.9%).